Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human–elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia

Mia Guarnieri, Grace Kumaishi, Cameryn Brock, Mayukh Chatterjee, Ezequiel Fabiano, Roshni Katrak-Adefowora, Ashley Larsen, Taylor M. Lockmann, Patrick R. Roehrdanz

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 121

January 29, 2024

Human–wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability—three key drivers of human–elephant conflict—will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions “regional rivalry” SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions “sustainability” SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.

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Guarnieri, M., Kumaishi, G., Brock, C., Chatterjee, M., Fabiano, E., Katrak-Adefowora, R., Larsen, A., Lockmann, T. M., & Roehrdanz, P. R. (2024). Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human–elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(6). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312569121